← Hobby Lords Chch Store Championships
Fire Crux MageTier 2
at Hobby Lords Chch Store Championships
decks
2
(18.2% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
9
3-5-1
overall winrate
38.9%
ELO-adjusted winrate
44.8%
avg ELO -2.4 per match
expected value
47.5%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
48.3%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1282
· median 1282
· range 1158–1405
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1074
Q1 1136
Q3 1374
1454
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 9.1% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.3% | -1.1 |
| Slimes | 9.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.6% | +13.8 |
| Water Aetherwing | 9.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.4% | -15.4 |
| Water Byakko | 9.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.2% | -9.2 |
| Water Chess | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 9.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.2% | -9.2 |
| Wind Allies | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 9.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.5% | +5.6 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 9.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.1% | -9.4 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 9.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.7% | +1.6 |
Decklists · 2 from this event
The 2 public Fire Crux Mage decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
